Prediction of high-risk emergency department revisits from a machine-learning algorithm: a proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: High-risk emergency department (ED) revisit is considered an important quality indicator that may reflect an increase in complications and medical burden. However, because of its multidimensional and highly complex nature, this factor has not been comprehensively investigated. This study aimed to predict high-risk ED revisit with a machine-learning (ML) approach. METHODS: This 3-year retrospective cohort study assessed adult patients between January 2019 and December 2021 from National Taiwan University Hospital Hsin-Chu Branch with high-risk ED revisit, defined as hospital or intensive care unit admission after ED return within 72 hours. A total of 150 features were preliminarily screened, and 79 were used in the prediction model. Deep learning, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and stacked ensemble algorithm were used. The stacked ensemble model combined multiple ML models and performed model stacking as a meta-level algorithm. Confusion matrix, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to evaluate performance. RESULTS: Analysis was performed for 6282 eligible adult patients: 5025 (80.0%) in the training set and 1257 (20.0%) in the testing set. High-risk ED revisit occurred for 971 (19.3%) of training set patients vs 252 (20.1%) in the testing set. Leading predictors of high-risk ED revisit were age, systolic blood pressure and heart rate. The stacked ensemble model showed more favourable prediction performance (AUROC 0.82) than the other models: deep learning (0.69), random forest (0.78) and XGBoost (0.79). Also, the stacked ensemble model achieved favourable accuracy and specificity. CONCLUSION: The stacked ensemble algorithm exhibited better prediction performance in which the predictions were generated from different ML algorithms to optimally maximise the final set of results. Patients with older age and abnormal systolic blood pressure and heart rate at the index ED visit were vulnerable to high-risk ED revisit. Further studies should be conducted to externally validate the model.

The interaction of sex and age on outcomes in emergency medical services-treated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A 5-year multicenter retrospective analysis.

Background: Studies have established that sex and age influence outcomes following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). However, a knowledge gap exists regarding their interaction. This study aimed to investigate the interaction of age and sex and how they cooperatively influence OHCA outcomes. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult, nontraumatic OHCA patients admitted to a university hospital and its affiliated hospitals in Taiwan from January 2017 to December 2021. Data including sex, age, body mass index, cardiac rhythm, and resuscitation information in the emergency department (ED) were collected from medical records. The study outcomes encompassed survival to intensive care unit (ICU) admission, survival to hospital discharge, and a favorable neurological outcome. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to estimate the influence of sex on study outcomes. Results: We analyzed a total of 2,826 eligible subjects categorized into three groups: young (18-44 years, 149 males and 57 females), middle-aged (45-64 years, 524 males and 188 females), and old (≥65 years, 1,049 males and 859 females). Analysis of the effects of sex according to age stratification showed that old males had higher odds for survival to ICU admission (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.21-1.83) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.58-4.76) than did old females. Analysis of the effects of age according to sex stratification revealed that old males had lower odds for survival to hospital discharge (OR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.21-0.51) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16-0.43) than did young males. Old females also showed the same trend as males, with lower odds for survival to hospital discharge (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17-0.78) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.25) than did young females. Conclusions: The interaction between sex and age in patients with OHCA results in diverse outcomes. Within the same sex, age demonstrated varying effects on distinct outcomes.

Updated trends in the outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 2017-2021: Prior to and during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Objective: This study aims to describe out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) characteristics and trends before and during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Taiwan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a 5-year interrupted time series analysis. Eligible adults with non-traumatic OHCAs from January 2017 to December 2021 in 3 hospitals (university medical center, urban second-tier hospital, and rural second-tier hospital) were retrospectively enrolled. Variables were extracted from the emergency medical service reports and medical records. The years 2020 and 2021 were defined as the COVID-19 pandemic period. Outcomes included survival to admission after a sustained return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital discharge, and good neurological outcomes (cerebral performance category score 1 or 2). Results: We analyzed 2819 OHCA, including 1227 from a university medical center, 617 from an urban second-tier hospital, and 975 from a rural second-tier hospital. The mean age was 71 years old, and 60% of patients were males. During the COVID-19 pandemic period, video-assisted endotracheal tube intubation replaced the traditional direct laryngoscopy intubation. The trends of outcomes in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods varied among different hospitals. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the outcomes at the university medical center during the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly poorer in several respects. The survival rate on admission dropped from 44.6% to 39.4% (P = 0.037), and the survival rate to hospital discharge fell from 17.5% to 14.9% (P = 0.042). Additionally, there was a notable decrease in patients' good neurological outcomes, declining from 13.2% to 9.7% (P = 0.048). In contrast, the outcomes in urban and rural second-tier hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly differ from those in the pre-pandemic period. Conclusions: COVID-19 may alter some resuscitation management in OHCAs. There were no overall significant differences in outcomes before and during COVID-19 pandemic, but there were significant differences in outcomes when stratified by hospital types.

Risk stratification of patients with chest pain who have an unscheduled revisit to the emergency department.

AIMS: Acute cardiovascular (CV) emergencies are critical conditions that require urgent attention in the emergency department (ED). Failure to make a timely diagnosis may result in unscheduled ED revisits and severe outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with potentially missed acute CV emergencies. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective study enrolled adult patients who presented with chest pain and returned to the ED within 72 h. Demographic information, pre-existing medical conditions, chief complaints, triage level and vital signs, electrocardiography (ECG) reports, and laboratory data were collected from medical charts by independent physicians. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of acute CV diseases, including ACS, pulmonary embolism, unstable arrhythmia, acute decompensated heart failure, and aortic dissection. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the association between variables and acute CV emergencies. A total of 453 eligible patients were included, with 60 (13.2%) patients diagnosed as acute CV emergencies at the ED revisit. Risk factors for acute CV emergencies included male gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-6.25), abnormal ECG rhythm (aOR = 10.33, 95% CI = 4.68-22.83), and abnormal changes in high sensitivity Troponin-T (hs-cTnT) during sequential follow-up (aOR = 6.52, 95% CI = 2.19-19.45). CONCLUSIONS: Male gender, abnormal ECG rhythm, and a significant increase in sequential follow-up hs-cTnT levels were identified as significant risk factors for acute CV emergencies. ED physicians should recognize these high-risk patients with chest pain to prevent misdiagnosis and potential severe complications.

A simplified scoring model for predicting bacteremia in the unscheduled emergency department revisits: The SADFUL score.

BACKGROUND: Bacteremia is a severe complication of infectious disease. Patients with a high bacteremia risk in the emergency department (ED) but misidentified would lead to the unscheduled revisits. This study aimed to develop a simplified scoring model to predict bacteremia in patients with unscheduled ED revisits. METHODS: Adult patients with unscheduled ED revisits within 72 h with a final diagnosis of infectious disease were retrospectively included. The development cohort included patients visiting the ED from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021. Internal validation was performed in patients visiting the ED from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022. Variables including demographics, pre-comorbidities, triage levels, vital signs, chief complaints, and laboratory data in the index visit were analyzed. Bacteremia was the primary outcome determined by blood culture in either index visits or revisits. RESULTS: The SADFUL score for predicting bacteremia comprised the following predictors: "S"egmented neutrophil percentage (+3 points), "A"ge > 55 years (+1 point), "D"iabetes mellitus (+1 point), "F"ever (+2 points), "U"pper respiratory tract symptoms (-2 points), and "L"eukopenia (2 points). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence interval in the development (1802 patients, 190 [11%] with bacteremia) and the validation cohort (134 patients, 17 [13%] with bacteremia) were 0.78 (0.74-0.81) and 0.79 (0.71-0.88), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The SADFUL score is a simplified useful tool for predicting bacteremia in patients with unscheduled ED revisits. The scoring model could help ED physicians decrease misidentification of patients at a high risk for bacteremia and potential complications.

Differences in the characteristics and patterns of adult emergency department return visits before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Data about changes in the characteristics of ED return visits before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are limited. This study aimed to report the differences on utility in ED return visits after the COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2019 to 2020. Adult patients with ED return visits were included in the analysis. Variables including demographic characteristics, pre-comorbidities, triage levels, vital signs, chief complaints, management, and diagnosis were recorded and confirmed via a manual assessment. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with ED visits decreased by 23%. Hence, that of patients with ED return visits also reduced from 2580 to 2020 patients (22%) after the COVID-19 outbreak. The average age (60-57.8 years) of patients with return visits was significantly younger, and the proportion of female patients decreased remarkably. Further, the proportion of patients with chronic pre-existing diseases at the return visit significantly differed after the COVID-19 outbreak. The proportion of patients with chief complaints including dizziness, dyspnea, cough, vomiting, diarrhea, and chills during the return visits significantly differed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the multivariable logistic regression model, age, high triage level were significantly associated with unfavorable outcome return visit. CONCLUSION: The use of services in the ED has changed since the COVID-19 outbreak. Hence, the proportion of patients with unplanned return visits within 72 h decreased. After the COVID-19 outbreak, people are now cautious whether they should return to the ED, as in the pre-pandemic situation, or just treat conservatively at home.

Utility of carotid ultrasound on prediction of 1-year mortality in emergency department patients with neurological deficits: A 10-year population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between the carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality of patients with neurological deficits in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This study included patients with neurological symptoms who presented to the ED between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, and underwent sonographic imaging of the bilateral carotid bulb, common carotid artery (CCA), internal carotid artery (ICA), and external carotid arteries. A stenosis degree of >50% was defined as significant carotid stenosis. Carotid plaque score (CPS) was calculated by adding the score of stenosis severity of all segments. The association between carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality was investigated using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: The analysis included 7,961 patients (median age: 69 yr; men: 58.7%). Among them, 247 (3.1%) passed away from cardiovascular (CV)-related causes, and 746 (9.4%) died within a year. The mortality group presented with more significant carotid stenosis of the carotid bulb, CCA, or ICA and had a higher median CPS. A higher CPS was associated with a greater 1-yr all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-1.13; p = 0.001; log-rank p < 0.001) and CV-related mortality (aHR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04-1.22; p = 0.002, log-rank p < 0.001). Significant stenosis of either carotid artery segment did not result in a higher risk of 1-yr mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We comprehensively investigated the utility of carotid ultrasound parameters on predicting mortality in this 10-yr population-based cohort, which included over 7,000 patients with acute neurological deficits presented to the ED. The result showed that CPS could be used as risk stratification tools for 1-yr all-cause and CV mortality.

Aortic remodeling after endovascular aortic repair and tailored distal entry tears exclusion in Crawford type III or IV dissection aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) can only promote 55-80% false lumen (FL) thrombosis when only the proximal primary tear is covered during the repair of type B aortic dissection (TBAD). This study evaluated the effectiveness and clinical outcome of tailored exclusion of the primary entry tear with TEVAR and distal fenestrations with ancillary devices in patients with subacute or chronic Crawford type III and IV aortic dissection aneurysm. METHODS: All patients underwent either TEVAR for primary entry tear; subsequently, various ancillary devices were applied on each distal fenestration. These techniques included covered stent occlusion of detached visceral artery entry tears, TL stenting and FL occlusion with vascular plugs in the common iliac artery dissection, or TEVAR coverage for multiple fenestrations from segmental arteries. This case series included nine patients (seven men and two women; mean age: 63.4 years) during January 2013 to May 2019. Outcome analysis included the rates of technical success and procedure-related complications, completeness of FL occlusion, aortic remodeling, and midterm mortality at 2 years. RESULTS: The mean follow-up duration was 37.7 months without in-hospital mortality. One patient was lost to follow-up at the second month, the rest of patients were all alive during the follow-up period. All patients achieved complete FL thrombosis, and six patients exhibited aneurysm diameter shrinkage. CONCLUSION: Tailored exclusion of visceral and iliac distal fenestrations with proximal primary tear coverage can promote FL thrombosis and aortic remodeling in the visceral aortic segment in patients with Crawford type III or IV aortic dissection aneurysm.

Intravenous antibiotics at the index emergency department visit as an independent risk factor for hospital admission at the return visit within 72 hours.

INTRODUCTION: Although infection was the most common symptom in patients returning to the ED, whether intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit could serve as an indicator of patients with infectious diseases at high risk for hospital admission after returning to the ED within a short period of time remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors for hospital admission in patients returning to the ED within 72 hours with a final diagnosis of infectious diseases. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analyzed return visits to the ED from January to December 2019. Adult patients aged >20 years who had a return visit to the ED within 72 hours with an infectious disease were included herein. In total, 715 eligible patients were classified into the intravenous antibiotics and non-intravenous antibiotics group (reference group). The outcome studied was hospital admission to general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) at the return visits. RESULTS: Patients receiving intravenous antibiotics at index visits had significantly higher risk-approximately two times-for hospital admission at the return visits than those did not (adjusted odds ratio = 2.47, 95% CI = 1.34-4.57, p = 0.004). For every 10 years increase in age, the likelihood for hospital admission increased by 38%. Other factors included abnormal respiratory rate and high C-reactive protein levels. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit was an independent risk factor for hospital admission at return visits in patients with an infection disease. Physicians should consider carefully before discharging patients receiving intravenous antibiotics.

Mental health crisis in healthcare providers in the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional facility-based survey.

OBJECTIVES: During a pandemic, healthcare providers experience increased mental and physical burden. Burnout can lead to treatment errors, patient mortality, increased suicidal ideation and substance abuse as well as medical malpractice suits among medical staff. This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of burnout, acute stress disorder, anxiety disorder and depressive disorder among healthcare providers at the third month of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: A cross-sectional facility-based survey. SETTING: Hospitals around the country with different levels of care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1795 respondents, including 360 men and 1435 women who participated in the survey. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Burnout was assessed using the Physician Work Life Study. A score of ≥3 implied burnout. RESULTS: Of the 1795 respondents, 723 (40.3%) reported burnout, and 669 (37.3%) cared for patients with COVID-19. Anxiety levels were mild in 185 (10.3%) respondents, moderate in 209 (11.6%) and severe in 1401 (78.1%). The mean Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10 score was 9.5±6.3, and 817 (45.5%) respondents were classified as having depression. Factors associated with burnout were working in acute and critical care (ACC) divisions (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.84, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.39, p=0.019), caring for patients with COVID-19 (aOR=3.90, 95% CI 1.14 to 13.37, p=0.031) and having depressive disorder (aOR=9.44, 95% CI 7.44 to 11.97, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Physicians and nurses are vulnerable to burnout during a pandemic, especially those working in ACC divisions. Anxiety disorder, depressive disorder and care of patients with COVID-19 may be factors that influence the occurrence of burnout among healthcare providers.

Strategies on locations of public access defibrillator: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a critical condition with poor outcomes. Although the survival rate increases in those who undergo defibrillation, the utility of on-time defibrillation among bystanders remained low. An evaluation of the deployment strategy for public access defibrillators (PADs) is necessary to increase their use and accessibility. This study was to conduct a systematic review for deployment strategies of PADs. METHODS: Two authors independently searched for articles published before October 2019 from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library. An independent librarian provided the search strategy and assisted the literature research. We included articles that were focused on the main topic, but excluded those which were missing results or that used an unclear definition. The qualitative outcomes were the utility and OHCA coverage of PADs. We performed a qualitative analysis across the studies, but a quantitative analysis was not available due to the studies' heterogeneity in design and variety of outcomes. RESULTS: We eventually included 15 studies. Three strategies were presented: guidelines-based, grid-based, and landmark-based. The guidelines-based deployment was common fit for OHCA events. The grid-based method increased the use of bystander defibrillation 3-fold, and 30-day survival doubled. The top 3 landmarks in the landmark-based strategy were offices (18.6%), schools (13.3%), and sports facilities (12.9%). Utility of PADs might increase if we optimize PAD location by mathematical modeling and evaluation feedback. CONCLUSION: Three deployment strategies were presented. Although the optimal method could not be fully identified, a more efficient PAD deployment could benefit the population in terms of OHCA coverage and survival among patients with OHCA.

Comparison of Various Vagal Maneuvers for Supraventricular Tachycardia by Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vagal maneuvers (VagMs) are recommended as the first-line treatment of supraventricular tachycardia (SVT). However, the optimal type of VagMs remains unproven. AIM: This study aims to compare the effectiveness and adverse events amongst VagMs on SVT via network meta-analyses (NMAs). METHODS: We systematically searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that involved adults with SVT and compared VagMs without language restrictions. We determined the initial and final responses of conversion rate to sinus rhythm and adverse events. Risk of bias (RoB) was appraised by Cochrane revised tool, and contribution matrix was calculated. NMAs were synthesized using frequentist random-effects model and presented as relative risk (RR) with 95% CI. The order of probability was presented as surface under the cumulative ranking curve analysis (SUCRA). Sensitivity analysis was performed using both Bayesian and frequentist approach with fixed- or random-effects models. Certainty of evidence (CoE) was rated by using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations methodology. RESULTS: Fourteen RCTs with 2,180 patients were enrolled. Small portion of mixed estimates was contributed from high overall RoB studies. Compared with carotid sinus massage (CSM), the modified Valsalva maneuver (MVM) was the most effective VagM after initial performance [SUCRA: 0.9992, RR: 5.47 (1.77-16.93)] and at the end of study [SUCRA: 1.0000, RR: 3.62 (2.04-6.39), CoE: high]. The standard VM did not elicit better conversion rate to the sinus rhythm than CSM at the initial response [SUCRA: 0.4395, RR: 1.97 (0.63-6.15)] and at the end of the study [SUCRA: 0.4795, RR: 1.64 (0.94-2.87), CoE: moderate]. The SUCRA value of CSM at the initial and final responses was the least one amongst three VagMs (0.0613 and 0.0205, respectively). Adverse events amongst three VagMs were similar (CoE: low). Sensitivity analyses yielded consistent results. CONCLUSION: We recommended MVM as the first choice of VagM for rhythm conversion before the pharmacological management of SVT.

Proton pump inhibitors therapy and the risk of pneumonia: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and observational studies.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to summarize the current evidence regarding the risk of pneumonia associated with proton pump inhibitors (PPI) treatment. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, and CENTRAL from the 1970 through December 2017. We included both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. We used random-effect model to calculate the summary effect estimates and quantified the heterogeneity by I2 statistics. RESULTS: A total of 7,643,982 patients from 10 RCTs and 48 observational studies were included in this meta-analysis. The primary meta-analysis demonstrated PPIs use was significantly associated with increased risk of pneumonia, but the heterogeneity was high (odds ratio [OR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.57; I2, 95.4%). The sensitivity analysis indicated PPIs were not statistically associated with increased risk of pneumonia among patients concomitantly taking nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.31; I2, 5.8%). The funnel plot demonstrated significant publication bias, especially for observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of significant between-study heterogeneity and publication bias raised concerns regarding the validity of the primary meta-analytic result. Protopathic bias, or reverse causality, may cause overestimated association. Studies that adopted a design to account for protopathic bias did not show a significant association between PPI use and risk of pneumonia.